Basic Probability

Description

Probability is a fascinating branch of mathematics and indispensable for statistical literacy. In modern society it is necessary to be able to analyze probability claims in the media and to make informed judgments and decisions. This book provides a basic introduction to probabilistic thinking and reasoning under uncertainty, and illustrates it with many instructive and interesting examples.
All the essential aspects of basic probability are covered in this book. It grew out of a probability book I wrote for Dutch high school students, and it is written for students learning about probability for the first time. The book is aimed specially at statistics and data science students who need an accessible and solid introduction to the basics of probability. Probability is the bedrock for statistics and data science.
Key features of the book are conditional and Bayesian probability, real-world applications of the Poisson distribution, and the interplay between probability and computer simulation. Computer simulation is not only a computational tool for solving probability problems, but it is also a useful didactic tool for helping students to gain a better understanding of probabilistic ideas. The emphasis of the book is on discrete probability, but continuous probability distributions are also treated. Scattered throughout the text, many remarks are made on the history of probability.